The short term rental industry is projected to reach $500 billion in global revenue by 2030, surpassing the hotel industry. While consumer demand is booming, institutional investment currently represents less than 1% of the total ownership across this massive market.
At Investment Grade STR, we believe this represents an unprecedented opportunity for family offices and institutional investors to get in on the ground floor of a new trillion-dollar asset class – short-term rental real estate.
The Rise of the Travel Lifestyle
Over the last decade, we’ve witnessed a profound shift in how people live, work, and travel. Thanks to remote work capabilities and the prioritization of experiences over things, “bleisure” travel that blends business and leisure has become the norm. In 2022 alone, American Airlines reported a staggering $6.5 billion in bleisure revenue.
As travel demand exploded, traditional hotels fell out of favor. Travelers sought accommodations that provided more space, amenities, and a localized experience akin to residing in the destination rather than just visiting. Airbnb’s $85 billion market cap – larger than the top 5 hotel chains combined – is a testament to consumers’ overwhelming preference for short-term rentals.
This isn’t a fad, but rather a fundamental realignment reflecting how we want to live our lives in the 21st century. Short-term rental demand was up 24% year-over-year through May 2023, while hotel demand was stagnant at 0% growth.
An Underinvested Asset Class Primed for Growth
Despite its immense revenue potential of $500 billion annually by 2030, the short-term rental industry remains drastically underinvested and highly fragmented at the real estate ownership level.
Today, there are approximately 2 million homes and apartments operated as short-term rentals. That number is projected to grow to 2.6 million units by 2030. At an average investor home price of $543,000, the total market size of investment homes for short-term rentals is forecasted to reach $1.7 trillion by the end of the decade.
Yet institutional investors – who comprise 65% of ownership in multifamily real estate – currently own less than 1% of short-term rental properties.
This massive imbalance between rental demand and institutional investment has created rampant pricing inefficiencies, operational underperformance, and attractive opportunistic yield premiums of 300-500 basis points above traditional single-family and multifamily rentals.
The Multibillion-Dollar Arbitrage Opportunity
At Investment Grade STR, we believe this supply-demand disconnect represents a remarkable arbitrage opportunity for investors able to aggregate diversified short-term rental portfolios and professionalize operations and management over the coming years.
We draw parallels to the single-family rental (SFR) industry a decade ago. In 2011, SFR cap rates hovered around 11.5%. As institutional investors entered the space and drove efficiencies through professional management and economies of scale, cap rates compressed to 5.6% by 2021. This cap rate compression doubled early investors’ exit multiples.
A similar institutionalization wave is starting for short-term rentals. Over the past 24 months, a handful of pioneering institutional investors like TPG, Saluda Grade, Iconiq Capital, and Churchill Real Estate have poured over $1 billion into strategic partnerships with professional short-term rental operators and management platforms.
However, most large institutions remain on the sidelines, citing a lack of established operating track records, uncertainty around exit pricing, and challenges with the broader capital markets environment.
This hesitancy has created a opportunity for family offices and entrepreneurial investment firms to capitalize on attractive short-term rental yields today, with the goal of institutionalizing operations and realizing lucrative exits as the asset class becomes professionalized over the next 3-5 years.
Building Institutional-Quality Short-Term Rental Portfolios
To bridge the missing middle gap, family offices and private investors must blaze the trail by:
- Acquiring diversified portfolios of short-term rental properties on a price-per-square-foot basis rather than a cap rate basis, given the asset class’ relative immaturity.
- Partnering with leading professional property management companies to stabilize operations, increase rental income through dynamic pricing and revenue management, and drive operating efficiencies by clustering supply.
- Holding properties for 3-5 years as professional management platforms and demand growth drive income and yield increases.
- Eventually exiting via a portfolio sale to institutional investors at compressed exit cap rates as the asset class becomes institutionalized.
This value-creation playbook allows investors to get in at an attractive basis, maximize income through professional management, and crystallize outsized returns by riding the coming wave of institutionalization.
At Investment Grade STR, we’re partnering with forward-thinking family offices and investors to execute on this precise strategy.
Current Institutional Investment in Short-Term Rentals
While institutional ownership of short-term rentals remains limited today, there are already several prominent examples of family offices, private equity firms, and other investors acquiring and professionalizing portfolios in this emerging asset class:
TPG Real Estate Partners In May 2022, TPG announced a new $600 million partnership with short-term rental operator Kasa Living to acquire and manage 4,000 apartment units across the United States. TPG will invest equity alongside debt financing to build out a $1.2 billion portfolio of properties optimized for short-term rentals. (Source: The Real Deal)
Saluda Grade This private equity firm partnered with AvantStay in 2022, committing $500 million in equity to acquire short-term rental properties across the U.S. AvantStay will operate the homes as the brand partner. The deal represents one of the largest investments to date by an institutional player in short-term rentals. (Source: Bloomberg)
Iconiq Capital The Silicon Valley investment firm dedicated $450 million in 2021 to build a portfolio of multifamily properties with Sentral, a startup focused on short-term and medium-term rentals. The joint venture aims to acquire over 8,000 Class A multifamily units valued at over $5 billion. (Source: The Real Deal)
Kess InHouse The Miami-based single-family rental investment firm announced plans in 2022 to invest over $1 billion to acquire 5,000+ short-term rental properties over the next 3 years. They are partnering with property managers like Casai and LetMyProperty to operate the portfolio. (Source: Forbes)
Lafayette Real Estate This private equity firm committed $100 million in equity in 2022 to help build a nationwide portfolio of short-term rental homes with Patriot Family Homes. The capital will allow Patriot to acquire over 1,000 additional properties. (Source: PR Newswire)
Churchill Real Estate In late 2022, this investment manager provided a $200 million debt facility to ReAlpha to help scale their short-term rental platform and fund additional property acquisitions across the U.S. ReAlpha owns over 4,000 rental properties. (Source: PR Newswire)
Plum Guide This London-based startup focused on luxury vacation rentals raised $33 million in Series C funding from private equity firms in 2022 to fuel expansion of their platform and home acquisitions. Lead investors included Addition, Craft Ventures, and Chassoir. (Source: Skift)
This sampling shows investors are actively deploying capital into short-term rentals, the level of institutional ownership remains extremely low compared to other real estate asset classes. This supply-demand imbalance presents an exciting opportunity for professional investors to get in ahead of the curve and capitalize on the sector’s rapid growth and professionalization over the coming years.
Current Investment Grade STR Portfolio Initiatives
While the concept of short-term rental investing is still relatively new, Investment Grade STR is contiuing to partner with several elite family offices and investment firms to spearhead the institutionalization of this asset class:
- Investing as an LP in the investment vehicle
- Sharing economics as a GP by co-investing and earning management fees
- Acquiring equity warrants in the operating company itself
This innovative investment structure aligns incentives by giving the PE fund meaningful upside exposure as the portfolio and operating business appreciate over a projected 10-year hold period and the market becomes institutionalized.
The short-term rental industry’s rapid growth and institutional ownership imbalance have created a generational investment opportunity – but also a narrow window for investors to get in at an attractive basis.
At Investment Grade STR, we’re committed to being at the vanguard of professionalizing this asset class and generating outsize returns for our investors and partners.
If you’re a family office or investor interested in learning more about partnership opportunities, our differentiated strategy for building institutional-quality short-term rental portfolios, contact our acquisitions team team@investmentgrade.com. We’d be delighted to discuss pipeline opportunities and structure a tailored investment approach to meet your goals.